Wello's Ashes Blog

There is a school of thought that says although England were dire on the first three days of the Brisbane test, the result may have been different if Freddie had won the toss enabling England to make first use of a pitch that only got worse as the game went on.

Without saying that England would have won the game, their chances of securing a draw at the very least would have been greatly enhanced. Winning the toss here in Adelaide, with its reputation for taking spin on days four and five, is perhaps even more important, particularly as England seem to be committed to going into the match playing both Ashley Giles and Monty Panesar.

England will be desperate to bat first in this second test. The weather forecast is good with each of the last three days in Adelaide nudging 35 degrees centigrade and getting first go on what is traditionally an excellent batting wicket will give England a whole host of advantages.

First and foremost, the earlier in a game Shane Warne bowls, the less the conditions are likely to favour him. Australia have won so many tests in the past 14 years or so with Warne bowling in the last innings with the opposition chasing a massive total allowing him to crowd the batsmen with attacking fielders. Secondly, and of almost equal significance, will be England having two spinners to Australia's one. Panesar coming into the side will give Freddie far greater control than he had in Brisbane, and the prospect of him and Giles bowling in tandem to an Australian batting line up with a track record of vulnerability to left arm spin gives England great hope.

England's first innings will be the crucial factor. If they bat well and post a competitive total, England's five pronged attack will sense the opportunity to exert pressure on the Australians. Though clearly an excellent side, the one key weakness of the Australian team is their use of only four bowlers. Brett Lee averages 45 a wicket against England and concedes at least four an over in most spells he bowls. Glenn McGrath is 37 next year, so too Shane Warne. England must do exactly as they did in 2005 when targetting Jason Gillespie - take the attack to Lee or Warne, forcing Ponting to bowl either McGrath or Clark before they have had sufficient rest. This tactic is, if successful, will be even more effective when you consider that the Adelaide match is beginning less than four days after the Brisbane test finished.

Still, tactics and ideas count for nothing unless they are carried out effectively. Let's hope for Freddie having the luck he needs with the toss, and an England side batting for the best part of two days.

Yours in hope,

Wello