India can beat Australia
The approach of Christmas is a joyous occasion for most people when family members can catch up after a year apart and children dream of Santa Claus delivering eagerly awaited presents. For the cricket lover, there can be only one item on the agenda for Xmas night - make sure you watch the opening session of the 1st test between Australia and India at the MCG.
There's so much international cricket taking place at the moment that many series arrive without notice then slip into the memory banks without so much as a murmur. This time it's different. Australia, the undisputed world champions of test cricket, will be pitted against an Indian side whose self-belief continues to grow in the wake of test series wins over England and Pakistan and a magnificent victory in the ICC 20/20 World Cup.
The four test series will see a real clash of styles with Australia's raw pace pitted against an Indian batting line up replete with class and experience whilst the free scoring Australian batsmen will be tested by an Indian spin bowling duo who have over 800 test victims between them in Anil Kumble and Harbahjan Singh. When India last visited Australia, the result was 1-1 with India scoring 705 in their first innings at the SCG, Brett Lee taking 4 for 201 off 39 overs.
Therein lies the key to the whole series - can the veteran batting line-up of India withstand the blistering pace barrage of an Australian attack the like of which has not been seen since Dennis Lillee and Jeff Thomson were together? Brett Lee was the fastest bowler in the world but if the speed guns are to be believed, he has been supplanted by the sling of Shaun Tait. Mitch Johnson is that rare breed of left armer who bowls with serious speed meaning the Aussies have three bowlers who consistently exceed 90 mph in their arsenal. Add the guile and relentless accuracy of Stuart Clark, curently rated the best seam bowler in the world, and it makes for a potent, some would say unbeatable mix.
However, there are weaknesses in the Australian team and their primary one comes from an unexpected and somewhat ironic source - spin bowling. When Shane Warne was still playing, Australia had arguably the best spinner ever in their ranks, a bowler who could bowl long spells whilst taking plenty of wickets at a miserly economy rate. What's more, they had Stuart MacGill available as the ideal replacement, a leg spinner with a strike rate better than Warne's.
Now, the cupboard is a lot more bare. MacGill is unavailable for at least the first two tests through injury and lack of fitness meaning Australia's only realistic option is Brad Hogg, an excellent limited overs bowler but a man who has just 9 test wickets at an average of over 50 and whose last test came against Zimbabwe in 2003. Hogg is a crafty performer but the Australians will be acutely aware that the Indians are amongst the best players of spin in the world and could murder his left arm wrist-spin.
Thus after a decade and a half of dominance based on the mercurial talents of Shane Warne, it seems that Australia might do the unthinkable and base their attack around four pace bowlers and not pick a specialist spinner at all. Glenn McGrath has voiced such an opinion and in amongst the usual Australian bravado and confidence, there will surely be some concern over such a strategy, especially when two of the four tests are being played at the spin friendly venues of Sydney and Adelaide.
Kumble and Harbahjan wheeling away at the vaunted Australian batting line-up will be a fascinating contest and the Indian seamers Zahher Khan and RP Singh can cause the Aussies trouble with their expert use of swing but the real crunch will be how the Indians play the pace of Lee and Tait. Not renowned for their love of the short pitched ball, the Indians will face an onslaught of bouncers and intimidation from the two fastest bowlers in the world that will be compelling viewing. There is obduracy in the Indian batting in the form of Jaffer and Dravid, the latter having an excellent record against Australia. Where India can take the game away from Australia though is with their strokemakers, and the hope is that Sachin Tendulkar still possesses the desire and technique to really take it to the Aussies.
Sourav Ganguly has been in imperious form recently whilst Virender Sehwag is recalled to increase the shot making potential of the Indians. However, two players stand out when looking for Indian batsmen who can dominate the Australian attack: VVS Laxman and Yuvraj Singh. Laxman has an incredible record against the Australians and his 281 made when India followed on at Calcutta in 2001 resulted in one of the most astonishing comebacks in test cricket history with India winning the three match series 2-1 after being thumped in the first test. His wicket will be much sought after by the Australians. Yuvraj is arguably the most talented batsman in world cricket; an absolute gem of a player to watch. His elegant, languid style has a touch of Brian Lara about it and if he can make the side and withstand the short pitched stuff the Aussie quicks will surely pepper him with - and the jury is definitely out on that one - the Indians have a player who can decimate an Australian attack that will rely heavily on blasting players out at the expense of economy.
Whatever happens, this should be a series to savour regardless of your cricketing allegiance and Boxing Day can't come soon enough. For those of you tempted to part with your hard earned, India are curently 8/1 against winning the series in Australia with the Aussies 9/2 on and the draw 5/1. That's got to be worth as little flutter hasn't it?
Merry Christmas,
Wello
